SEC Conference Outlook
The SEC may be the tightest race right now, with no dominant team, and 4 teams within a game of first place. Kentucky has a one game lead over Texas A&M, South Carolina and LSU, but anything could happen from here on out. Kentucky still has to go on the road against Florida and Vandy, and also has a visit from LSU, while Texas A&M gets to play Mizzou, Auburn and Mississippi State before playing a slightly tougher game against Vandy at home. South Carolina also has an easy schedule the rest of the way, while LSU has to go on the road against UK. Here is a little paragraph on each of the top 4 plus #'s 5 and 6 Florida and Vanderbilt.
1. Texas A&M
I see the Aggies winning the conference, simply due to the fact that UK will probably lose one more game, and the Aggies really shouldn't. Texas A&M is behind one game, but will move ahead of UK in the conference tournament seeding if UK were to lose, because they hold the tiebreaker due to the head to head win this past weekend. The Aggies are led by a great duo in Jalen Jones and Danuel House. Both are 6-7 players listed as guards who combine for over 31 PPG plus 12 RPG. Jones and House have a lot of help in veterans Alex Caruso and Anthony Collins, plus highly touted freshman D.J. Hogg and Tyler Davis.
2. Kentucky
Kentucky really seems to getting into a groove right now. Once they get Alex Poythress back, they could be really, really good. Jamal Murray is an incredible scorer, and Tyler Ulis may be a first team All-American. Ulis is an incredible ball handler and passer, right up there with Denzel Valentine, Melo Trimble,Yogi Ferrell and maybe Kris Dunn (although Ferrell has been in a slump as of late). These guys are surrounded by a lot of depth, especially inside with Marcus Lee, Isaac Humphries, Poythress and Willis (if they return from injury), and Skal Labissiere, although Labissiere was vastly overrated going into the season (when has a consensus top 2 or 3 recruit barely gotten minutes). If the Wildcats can pull it together, we could see them in another Final Four come March.
3. South Carolina
South Carolina is 22-5, yet just 58th on kenpom.com. This is largely due to a poor strength of schedule (273 on kenpom.com), and a weak SEC. According to Pomeroy, the Gamecocks have also been the 8th luckiest teams in the country, meaning they have had a lot of close wins that they didn't necessarily deserve. South Carolina just isn't efficient enough offensively to hang with top teams for consistently. Three of their top 6 scorers shoot less than 40% from the field, which is just terrible. They are going to need Sindarius Thornwell, Duane Notice, and PJ Dozier to start being more efficient if they want to have a successful end to the year.
4. LSU
I'm not sure why this team isn't better, I would probably blame it on Johnny Jones, as they don't lack talent. Jones needs to get Ben Simmons even more involved than he already is, and stop all the wing players from taking atrocious shots early in the shot clock. The talent is there, this team has shooting, rebounding, athleticism, all of the pieces, but the coaching is weak. Ben Simmons is an incredible basketball player, but what worries me is his lack of offensive aggression in taking the ball to the hoop, and his lack of wanting to take the shot in big moments. Too many times I have seen him pass up a chance to get fouled or score near the basket, just to pass out to a 3 point shot to guys like Antonio Blakeney or Tim Quarterman, who shoot just 34% from three. If this team wants to make the tournament (on the outside-looking in part of the bubble right now), Ben Simmons is going to have to take control, and stop letting Quarterman, Blakeney and tons of others from taking horrible shots.
5. Florida
Florida probably isn't the 5h best team in the conference, but they will probably finish down here in the standings due to the fact that they already have 6 losses. Florida is looking good NCAA tournament-wise right now, as they should be in if they finish strong. Dorian Finney-Smith is a really good player. I've thought this for a long time, and he has finally begun to really step up this year, although his percentages have dipped a little from last year. John Egbunu and Devin Robinson are big rebounders inside, and Kasey Hill has talent. I'm not sure what happened to Hill, his shooting percentages and stats have been pretty bad for a guy recruited as the number 2 point guard in the country. Anytime you shoot less than 35% from the field, 54% from the line and 23% from three, you know that something is wrong. Florida should make the tourney, but I don't see them doing much when they get there.
6. Vanderbilt
The Commodores have struggled with close games. When I say struggle, I don't just mean that they have lost a couple of close ones. I mean that ever since their early season loss to Kansas (including this loss), they are 2-9 in games decided by single digits. This probably isn't due to a problem with anything on their team, I think it is just due to bad luck. It certainly can't help their confidence either, with loss after loss in close games. I think this Vandy team is really good, and could be really, really good, but right now all that matters for them is making the tournament. They have three really tough tests left (UK, at Florida, and at A&M), giving them a good opportunity to get in, but right now they are on the outside looking in. If they do make the tournament, I think they could win a couple of games. They have great shooters (stretch 4 Luke Kornet, Riley LaChance, Jeff Roberson and one of the best shooters in the country in Matthew Fisher-Davis). They also have a true rim protector, and low post stud in Damian Jones, and an athletic, ultra-talented point guard in Wade Baldwin IV. It is not a coincidence that they are 28th on kenpom.com, a place that should warrant a 7 seed. If they make the tournament and you are looking for a interesting upset pick, pencil them into the Sweet 16 and thank me later.
1. Texas A&M
I see the Aggies winning the conference, simply due to the fact that UK will probably lose one more game, and the Aggies really shouldn't. Texas A&M is behind one game, but will move ahead of UK in the conference tournament seeding if UK were to lose, because they hold the tiebreaker due to the head to head win this past weekend. The Aggies are led by a great duo in Jalen Jones and Danuel House. Both are 6-7 players listed as guards who combine for over 31 PPG plus 12 RPG. Jones and House have a lot of help in veterans Alex Caruso and Anthony Collins, plus highly touted freshman D.J. Hogg and Tyler Davis.
2. Kentucky
Kentucky really seems to getting into a groove right now. Once they get Alex Poythress back, they could be really, really good. Jamal Murray is an incredible scorer, and Tyler Ulis may be a first team All-American. Ulis is an incredible ball handler and passer, right up there with Denzel Valentine, Melo Trimble,Yogi Ferrell and maybe Kris Dunn (although Ferrell has been in a slump as of late). These guys are surrounded by a lot of depth, especially inside with Marcus Lee, Isaac Humphries, Poythress and Willis (if they return from injury), and Skal Labissiere, although Labissiere was vastly overrated going into the season (when has a consensus top 2 or 3 recruit barely gotten minutes). If the Wildcats can pull it together, we could see them in another Final Four come March.
3. South Carolina
South Carolina is 22-5, yet just 58th on kenpom.com. This is largely due to a poor strength of schedule (273 on kenpom.com), and a weak SEC. According to Pomeroy, the Gamecocks have also been the 8th luckiest teams in the country, meaning they have had a lot of close wins that they didn't necessarily deserve. South Carolina just isn't efficient enough offensively to hang with top teams for consistently. Three of their top 6 scorers shoot less than 40% from the field, which is just terrible. They are going to need Sindarius Thornwell, Duane Notice, and PJ Dozier to start being more efficient if they want to have a successful end to the year.
4. LSU
I'm not sure why this team isn't better, I would probably blame it on Johnny Jones, as they don't lack talent. Jones needs to get Ben Simmons even more involved than he already is, and stop all the wing players from taking atrocious shots early in the shot clock. The talent is there, this team has shooting, rebounding, athleticism, all of the pieces, but the coaching is weak. Ben Simmons is an incredible basketball player, but what worries me is his lack of offensive aggression in taking the ball to the hoop, and his lack of wanting to take the shot in big moments. Too many times I have seen him pass up a chance to get fouled or score near the basket, just to pass out to a 3 point shot to guys like Antonio Blakeney or Tim Quarterman, who shoot just 34% from three. If this team wants to make the tournament (on the outside-looking in part of the bubble right now), Ben Simmons is going to have to take control, and stop letting Quarterman, Blakeney and tons of others from taking horrible shots.
5. Florida
Florida probably isn't the 5h best team in the conference, but they will probably finish down here in the standings due to the fact that they already have 6 losses. Florida is looking good NCAA tournament-wise right now, as they should be in if they finish strong. Dorian Finney-Smith is a really good player. I've thought this for a long time, and he has finally begun to really step up this year, although his percentages have dipped a little from last year. John Egbunu and Devin Robinson are big rebounders inside, and Kasey Hill has talent. I'm not sure what happened to Hill, his shooting percentages and stats have been pretty bad for a guy recruited as the number 2 point guard in the country. Anytime you shoot less than 35% from the field, 54% from the line and 23% from three, you know that something is wrong. Florida should make the tourney, but I don't see them doing much when they get there.
6. Vanderbilt
The Commodores have struggled with close games. When I say struggle, I don't just mean that they have lost a couple of close ones. I mean that ever since their early season loss to Kansas (including this loss), they are 2-9 in games decided by single digits. This probably isn't due to a problem with anything on their team, I think it is just due to bad luck. It certainly can't help their confidence either, with loss after loss in close games. I think this Vandy team is really good, and could be really, really good, but right now all that matters for them is making the tournament. They have three really tough tests left (UK, at Florida, and at A&M), giving them a good opportunity to get in, but right now they are on the outside looking in. If they do make the tournament, I think they could win a couple of games. They have great shooters (stretch 4 Luke Kornet, Riley LaChance, Jeff Roberson and one of the best shooters in the country in Matthew Fisher-Davis). They also have a true rim protector, and low post stud in Damian Jones, and an athletic, ultra-talented point guard in Wade Baldwin IV. It is not a coincidence that they are 28th on kenpom.com, a place that should warrant a 7 seed. If they make the tournament and you are looking for a interesting upset pick, pencil them into the Sweet 16 and thank me later.
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