5 Bold Predictions- Thank Me Later
1. Vandy makes an Elite 8 run.
My thinking: Vandy is a lot better than people think. Although they were on the outside looking in for the NCAA tournament a week ago, I held faith in them and said that they could be a candidate to make the Sweet 16, despite being 16-11 and in the First Four out in Joe Lunardi's tourney bracket. The Commodores now have a much better chance to get in, with wins this week on the road against Florida (watch this crazy shot), and then over Kentucky on Saturday. These wins should put them in the tournament, barring any collapse. Additionally, Vanderbilt is #22 on kenpom.com, which is a lot better than their projected tournament seed right now. They have a lot of shooting talent, a top level big guy, and enough veteran leadership to get the job done.
2. Xavier doesn't make the Sweet 16.
My thinking: The Musketeers are very overrated and inconsistent. According to kenpom.com, they have been one of the luckiest teams in the country. Shockingly, they are 7-0 in games decided by 8 points or less, and have played way too many close games against bad teams. Five of those wins by 8 points or less came against Marquette, Wake Forest and St. John's, #96, #128 and #233, respectively.
Those are pretty bad wins, and in the tournament, they certainly won't play more than one team this bad (and may not even play one team ranked this low). If they have to play a good mid-major team in the first round, it could be a major upset alert.
3. Iowa loses in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
My thinking: The Hawkeyes are 14th in the country on kenpom.com, but the thing that really makes me worry about Iowa is how much they have slid in the rankings. Not too long ago, they were 2nd. Teams almost never slip that far in efficiency rankings, because if you don't suffer major injuries (which the Hawkeyes haven't), your efficiency rating as a team shouldn't go down by THAT much. To me, this shows a major problem, maybe due to some luck early in the year, or players collectively just playing out of their minds. This drop in efficiency has showed in their outcomes, as they have lost 3 in a row, and 4 of 5 with the only win being at home by 4 pts over 8-19 Minnesota. These things are not a good sign, and tell me that maybe they have peaked too early, and probably won't recover. But that's just my opinion.
4. Texas Tech wins the Big 12 Tournament
My thinking: I know. This one would be a shocker. But, Oklahoma has proved to be inconsistent, and recently lost to the Red Raiders. Kansas might be vulnerable, having just won 9 in a row (which could be 11 by the time the Big 12 tourney starts, or more if they face TTU). West Virginia could lose early in the Big 12 tournament as well, as they haven't played well this year against really good teams. They have struggled versus Oklahoma, Virginia, and other top teams. The one win vs Kansas is nice, but you can't expect the Jayhawks to make 22 turnovers. To conclude, the Big 12 tournament could be wide open despite the number of good teams, and Texas Tech is as good of a candidate as any to pull out the win, after recently beating 3 ranked teams in a row recently. What a turnaround for TTU, especially considering they lost 7 of 8 early this year.
5. This year's NCAA tournament has the most upsets of any in NCAA tourney history.
My thinking: There are no great teams this year, just a lot of really good teams. Last year, you had Duke, Wisconsin and Kentucky. This year, no team is even close to that level. Additionally, tons of good mid-majors such as Monmouth, Arkansas Little-Rock, Wichita State and my favorite, Valparaiso, plus underrated power five schools such as Wisconsin and Vandy lay waiting to pull off shocking and fantastic upsets. This year could bring an incredible NCAA tournament.
My thinking: Vandy is a lot better than people think. Although they were on the outside looking in for the NCAA tournament a week ago, I held faith in them and said that they could be a candidate to make the Sweet 16, despite being 16-11 and in the First Four out in Joe Lunardi's tourney bracket. The Commodores now have a much better chance to get in, with wins this week on the road against Florida (watch this crazy shot), and then over Kentucky on Saturday. These wins should put them in the tournament, barring any collapse. Additionally, Vanderbilt is #22 on kenpom.com, which is a lot better than their projected tournament seed right now. They have a lot of shooting talent, a top level big guy, and enough veteran leadership to get the job done.
2. Xavier doesn't make the Sweet 16.
My thinking: The Musketeers are very overrated and inconsistent. According to kenpom.com, they have been one of the luckiest teams in the country. Shockingly, they are 7-0 in games decided by 8 points or less, and have played way too many close games against bad teams. Five of those wins by 8 points or less came against Marquette, Wake Forest and St. John's, #96, #128 and #233, respectively.
Those are pretty bad wins, and in the tournament, they certainly won't play more than one team this bad (and may not even play one team ranked this low). If they have to play a good mid-major team in the first round, it could be a major upset alert.
3. Iowa loses in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
My thinking: The Hawkeyes are 14th in the country on kenpom.com, but the thing that really makes me worry about Iowa is how much they have slid in the rankings. Not too long ago, they were 2nd. Teams almost never slip that far in efficiency rankings, because if you don't suffer major injuries (which the Hawkeyes haven't), your efficiency rating as a team shouldn't go down by THAT much. To me, this shows a major problem, maybe due to some luck early in the year, or players collectively just playing out of their minds. This drop in efficiency has showed in their outcomes, as they have lost 3 in a row, and 4 of 5 with the only win being at home by 4 pts over 8-19 Minnesota. These things are not a good sign, and tell me that maybe they have peaked too early, and probably won't recover. But that's just my opinion.
4. Texas Tech wins the Big 12 Tournament
My thinking: I know. This one would be a shocker. But, Oklahoma has proved to be inconsistent, and recently lost to the Red Raiders. Kansas might be vulnerable, having just won 9 in a row (which could be 11 by the time the Big 12 tourney starts, or more if they face TTU). West Virginia could lose early in the Big 12 tournament as well, as they haven't played well this year against really good teams. They have struggled versus Oklahoma, Virginia, and other top teams. The one win vs Kansas is nice, but you can't expect the Jayhawks to make 22 turnovers. To conclude, the Big 12 tournament could be wide open despite the number of good teams, and Texas Tech is as good of a candidate as any to pull out the win, after recently beating 3 ranked teams in a row recently. What a turnaround for TTU, especially considering they lost 7 of 8 early this year.
5. This year's NCAA tournament has the most upsets of any in NCAA tourney history.
My thinking: There are no great teams this year, just a lot of really good teams. Last year, you had Duke, Wisconsin and Kentucky. This year, no team is even close to that level. Additionally, tons of good mid-majors such as Monmouth, Arkansas Little-Rock, Wichita State and my favorite, Valparaiso, plus underrated power five schools such as Wisconsin and Vandy lay waiting to pull off shocking and fantastic upsets. This year could bring an incredible NCAA tournament.
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