Blind Resumes
Sorry for not posting for a while, but I wanted to take some time to examine the past few weeks, and then do some blind resumes. Here are some thoughts:
1. The Big 3 (Teams)
Every ranking you look at recently puts the same three teams at the top (BPI, Coaches Poll, kenpom.com, AP Poll): Villanova, Purdue, and Virginia. None of these teams were particularly highly rated going into the season. Sure, they were NCAA tournament teams, and maybe even projected Sweet 16 teams at that, but I don't think anyone would have expected these three to occupy the top three spots in the rankings. Let's take a look at all three.
Villanova
Jay Wright has quickly turned Villanova into a powerhouse program. Two years ago, they won the national title, last year they were a one seed, and this year they are ranked number one with yet another superb team. What's most shocking to me is the stats of their top six. They have 6 guys averaging at least 9.7 points per game, and two guys who are having all-american type years in Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson. Bridges has finally come into his own, averaging 17 PPG and 5.9 RPG on 50.5% from the field. However, that line pales in comparison to Jalen Brunson's numbers. Brunson is averaging 19.0 PPG along with 3.2 RPG, 5.2 APG and 57.7 % mark from the field (RIDICULOUS!), all while turning the ball over just 1.6 times per game. If that wasn't impressive enough, just take a look at his percentages from 2 and 3. Brunson is shooting 48.5% from three, which is an incredible mark that is one of the best in the country, and also 64.6% from two, another absolutely mind-blowing number. While many people compare guys like Marvin Bagley and Trae Young for the Wooden Award, Brunson may have the strongest argument of all with one of the most efficient seasons ever by a point guard, all while leading the number one team in the country.
Purdue
This one might be the biggest surprise of the three. The Boilermakers lost a Wooden Award candidate in Caleb Swanigan, yet still are on fire as of late and playing like maybe the best team in the country. Fun fact: Purdue has won 14 games in a row, and has also not lost in the United States all year. Whatever happened in the Bahamas was clearly problematic (1-2 there, and interestingly enough the same thing happened to Arizona who went 0-3) but other than that Purdue has wins over Marquette on the road, Arizona, Louisville, Butler, Maryland on the road, Michigan on the road, and Minnesota on the road. Carsen and Vince Edwards (surprisingly not brothers!) are both studs, and Isaac Haas is a man among boys in the middle, but the guy who really makes this team go is Dakota Mathias, a senior from Ohio. I remember ripping on Mathias pretty badly his freshman year. He was a huge liability for Purdue, starting 17 games but averaging just over one assist while shooting a horrific 32.7% from the field. He now leads them in assists, and is shooting 45.8% from three. What an improvement for Mathias, and great development by coach Matt Painter. I wasn't sure how good the Boilermakers were before I saw them obliterate Iowa in the first half this weekend (on the road). They led 51-20 at the half, despite shooting 3 LESS shots than the Hawkeyes. One thing is clear, it's Final Four or bust for Purdue. Can Painter get them there? Only time will tell, but I think they've got a pretty good shot.
Virginia
Ironically, I listed them as the third of this big three. It's a common theme for Virginia, as they are the most perpetually underrated team in the country. Year in, year out, Virginia loses a lot of talent and are written off preseason. However, year in, year out, Tony Bennett puts together a contender by developing a stifling team defense. The Cavaliers (unlike the NBA's Cavaliers right now!) have been dominant defensively over the past few years, ranking in the top seven nationally in kenpom's end of season defensive efficiency four years in a row, and were top 2 in three of those years. This year, they are once again on top, as they are number one again by a large margin. Bennett's ability to churn out great teams without recruiting many five star players is pretty unbelievable considering the state of college sports today. While Duke, Kentucky, Kansas and others continue to reel in plenty of top 5 guys, they are rivaled each year by Virginia, a team largely made up of unknowns. Not to say these guys aren't fantastic players, as Kyle Guy and Devon Hall are really talented, but Bennett's sustained success without recruiting top guys makes him the MVP of this team for sure (Most Valuable Person!). Big game for them against Duke this weekend, I'm sure it'll be a great one!
2. The Freshmen (Freshman?)
I also just wanted to take a minute to acknowledge this year's crop of stud freshman. Well... basically just Marvin Bagley and Trae Young. And basically just Trae Young. Bagley has been awesome, a player of the year candidate in his own right (21.9 PPG and 11.5 RPG), but Trae Young has really transformed college basketball in some amazing ways. Young might not be the best or most efficient player in the country, but I do think he is the most valuable simply because he does so much for his team. Young is averaging video game numbers to lead 12th ranked Oklahoma. He's putting up 30.5 PPG (not on terrible percentages either) and is also averaging 9.7 assists per game. Young combines incredible shooting range with quickness, great ball-handling and passing while also being the most aggressive player in the country. While his 5.3 turnovers per game are concerning, his offensive prowess is making him in my opinion the most incredible offensive player that college basketball has seen in over a decade. We'll see if he can take care of the ball a little better, but watch him while you can because college basketball might not see another player like him for a while.
It's that time of year again! Blind resume time, that is. If you don't know already, blind resumes are a common college football and basketball tool to decipher how good a team is without giving the team name, and the bias that comes with it. I'll be looking at BPI and kenpom.com (two well-respected computer rankings systems), record and strength of schedule (SOS) for teams to show some clear biases in the AP and coaches polls that just came out.
Example #1
Team 1
Record: 18-3
BPI: 13
SOS: 16
Kenpom.com ranking: 15
Team 2
Record: 18-3
BPI: 24
SOS: 79
Kenpom.com ranking: 18
Team 1 clearly looks a little bit better in this scenario, but the margin doesn't seem significant. Looking at the numbers, I would probably put Team 1 around 15 in the rankings and Team 2 around 20. However, Team 1 is Xavier, who is ranked #8 in both the AP Poll and Coaches Poll, and Team 2 is Nevada, who is ranked 23rd in the AP Poll, and unranked in the Coaches Poll. While Xavier has looked better than Nevada thus far, they've won a ton of close against subpar teams, such as Marshall by 4, Northern Iowa by 10, Depaul by 5, ETSU by 2 and St. John's by 6. If they play like that in the tournament, they could be bounced early, maybe even in the first round. Nevada doesn't have the big names like Trevon Bluiett and J.P. Macura (or Enes Kanter's brother Kerem, who is averaging 10 PPG in just over 15 minutes), but three transfers (Cody and Caleb Martin from NC State, Kendall Stephens from Purdue) all were highly rated recruits who could combine with Jordan Caroline for a deep NCAA tournament run. Speaking of Nevada, on their way to a 12 seed last year they had an absolutely ridiculous comeback win over New Mexico. Led by Caroline's 45 points (son of former NFL all-pro player Simeon Rice), the Wolfpack came back from a 25 point deficit to win in OT, including being down 14 with a minute to go. Check it out below:
Team 1
Record: 14-5
BPI: 16
SOS: 14
Kenpom.com ranking: 21
Team 2
Record: 14-5
BPI: 35
SOS: 22
Kenpom.com ranking: 36
Team 3
Record: 15-5
BPI: 33
SOS: 20
Kenpom.com ranking: 38
Team 2 and Team 3 look remarkably similar in this example. They both have 5 losses, really similar strength of schedules, BPIs and kenpom rankings. Team 1, on the other hand, looks to be pretty significantly ahead of the other two, looking like a top 15-20 team by most of the metrics. In the AP and Coaches Polls though, Team 1 came in behind Team 2 and Team 3. Why did that happen? Probably because of the name brands that Kentucky (team 2) and to a lesser extent Seton Hall (team 3) bring. These teams were expected to be top 10 to 15 teams going into the season, so despite the fact that they aren't playing very well right now, they still get the benefit of the doubt over a team like Creighton. Creighton might be my pick for most underrated team in the country, as they combine star power (stud guards Marcus Foster and Khyri Thomas) with great depth (10 guys who contribute). I could see them making a deep run this tournament, and having watched all three teams, they certainly impressed me a lot more than Kentucky's inconsistent freshman and Seton Hall's lack of depth.
Example #3
Team 1
Record: 15-4
BPI: 36
SOS: 39
Kenpom.com ranking: 26
Team 2
Record: 14-5
BPI: 26
SOS: 25
Kenpom.com ranking: 22
This blind resume would seem to point towards Team 2 being clearly better than Team 1. Yeah, Team 1 has less losses, but Team 2 has played a tougher schedule and is ranked much higher in both computer rankings. Instead Team 1 (Arizona St) is ranked 21st in the AP Poll and 20th in the Coaches Poll, while Florida St got 14 votes in the AP Poll (good for 33rd), and just two votes in the Coaches Poll (good for a tie for 37th!!!). Florida State is severely underrated, and is a big part of an ACC that is as strong as ever (although not as good as the Big 12). Florida St does not have any big names, as they are led by Terrance Mann, Braian Angola and Phil Cofer (doubt many people are too familiar with those guys), but have a few good road wins (Florida, Virginia Tech and Rutgers) as well as home wins over Syracuse and North Carolina. The Seminoles have been playing great as of late. Arizona St on the other hand, beat Kansas, Xavier and Kansas St earlier in the year, but then lost 4 of their first 6 PAC-12 games. I think the Sun Devils will figure it out at some point, but I doubt the play much of a role in the national picture the way that people thought they would a few weeks ago.
1. The Big 3 (Teams)
Every ranking you look at recently puts the same three teams at the top (BPI, Coaches Poll, kenpom.com, AP Poll): Villanova, Purdue, and Virginia. None of these teams were particularly highly rated going into the season. Sure, they were NCAA tournament teams, and maybe even projected Sweet 16 teams at that, but I don't think anyone would have expected these three to occupy the top three spots in the rankings. Let's take a look at all three.
Villanova
Jay Wright has quickly turned Villanova into a powerhouse program. Two years ago, they won the national title, last year they were a one seed, and this year they are ranked number one with yet another superb team. What's most shocking to me is the stats of their top six. They have 6 guys averaging at least 9.7 points per game, and two guys who are having all-american type years in Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson. Bridges has finally come into his own, averaging 17 PPG and 5.9 RPG on 50.5% from the field. However, that line pales in comparison to Jalen Brunson's numbers. Brunson is averaging 19.0 PPG along with 3.2 RPG, 5.2 APG and 57.7 % mark from the field (RIDICULOUS!), all while turning the ball over just 1.6 times per game. If that wasn't impressive enough, just take a look at his percentages from 2 and 3. Brunson is shooting 48.5% from three, which is an incredible mark that is one of the best in the country, and also 64.6% from two, another absolutely mind-blowing number. While many people compare guys like Marvin Bagley and Trae Young for the Wooden Award, Brunson may have the strongest argument of all with one of the most efficient seasons ever by a point guard, all while leading the number one team in the country.
Purdue
This one might be the biggest surprise of the three. The Boilermakers lost a Wooden Award candidate in Caleb Swanigan, yet still are on fire as of late and playing like maybe the best team in the country. Fun fact: Purdue has won 14 games in a row, and has also not lost in the United States all year. Whatever happened in the Bahamas was clearly problematic (1-2 there, and interestingly enough the same thing happened to Arizona who went 0-3) but other than that Purdue has wins over Marquette on the road, Arizona, Louisville, Butler, Maryland on the road, Michigan on the road, and Minnesota on the road. Carsen and Vince Edwards (surprisingly not brothers!) are both studs, and Isaac Haas is a man among boys in the middle, but the guy who really makes this team go is Dakota Mathias, a senior from Ohio. I remember ripping on Mathias pretty badly his freshman year. He was a huge liability for Purdue, starting 17 games but averaging just over one assist while shooting a horrific 32.7% from the field. He now leads them in assists, and is shooting 45.8% from three. What an improvement for Mathias, and great development by coach Matt Painter. I wasn't sure how good the Boilermakers were before I saw them obliterate Iowa in the first half this weekend (on the road). They led 51-20 at the half, despite shooting 3 LESS shots than the Hawkeyes. One thing is clear, it's Final Four or bust for Purdue. Can Painter get them there? Only time will tell, but I think they've got a pretty good shot.
Virginia
Ironically, I listed them as the third of this big three. It's a common theme for Virginia, as they are the most perpetually underrated team in the country. Year in, year out, Virginia loses a lot of talent and are written off preseason. However, year in, year out, Tony Bennett puts together a contender by developing a stifling team defense. The Cavaliers (unlike the NBA's Cavaliers right now!) have been dominant defensively over the past few years, ranking in the top seven nationally in kenpom's end of season defensive efficiency four years in a row, and were top 2 in three of those years. This year, they are once again on top, as they are number one again by a large margin. Bennett's ability to churn out great teams without recruiting many five star players is pretty unbelievable considering the state of college sports today. While Duke, Kentucky, Kansas and others continue to reel in plenty of top 5 guys, they are rivaled each year by Virginia, a team largely made up of unknowns. Not to say these guys aren't fantastic players, as Kyle Guy and Devon Hall are really talented, but Bennett's sustained success without recruiting top guys makes him the MVP of this team for sure (Most Valuable Person!). Big game for them against Duke this weekend, I'm sure it'll be a great one!
2. The Freshmen (Freshman?)
I also just wanted to take a minute to acknowledge this year's crop of stud freshman. Well... basically just Marvin Bagley and Trae Young. And basically just Trae Young. Bagley has been awesome, a player of the year candidate in his own right (21.9 PPG and 11.5 RPG), but Trae Young has really transformed college basketball in some amazing ways. Young might not be the best or most efficient player in the country, but I do think he is the most valuable simply because he does so much for his team. Young is averaging video game numbers to lead 12th ranked Oklahoma. He's putting up 30.5 PPG (not on terrible percentages either) and is also averaging 9.7 assists per game. Young combines incredible shooting range with quickness, great ball-handling and passing while also being the most aggressive player in the country. While his 5.3 turnovers per game are concerning, his offensive prowess is making him in my opinion the most incredible offensive player that college basketball has seen in over a decade. We'll see if he can take care of the ball a little better, but watch him while you can because college basketball might not see another player like him for a while.
It's that time of year again! Blind resume time, that is. If you don't know already, blind resumes are a common college football and basketball tool to decipher how good a team is without giving the team name, and the bias that comes with it. I'll be looking at BPI and kenpom.com (two well-respected computer rankings systems), record and strength of schedule (SOS) for teams to show some clear biases in the AP and coaches polls that just came out.
Example #1
Team 1
Record: 18-3
BPI: 13
SOS: 16
Kenpom.com ranking: 15
Team 2
Record: 18-3
BPI: 24
SOS: 79
Kenpom.com ranking: 18
Team 1 clearly looks a little bit better in this scenario, but the margin doesn't seem significant. Looking at the numbers, I would probably put Team 1 around 15 in the rankings and Team 2 around 20. However, Team 1 is Xavier, who is ranked #8 in both the AP Poll and Coaches Poll, and Team 2 is Nevada, who is ranked 23rd in the AP Poll, and unranked in the Coaches Poll. While Xavier has looked better than Nevada thus far, they've won a ton of close against subpar teams, such as Marshall by 4, Northern Iowa by 10, Depaul by 5, ETSU by 2 and St. John's by 6. If they play like that in the tournament, they could be bounced early, maybe even in the first round. Nevada doesn't have the big names like Trevon Bluiett and J.P. Macura (or Enes Kanter's brother Kerem, who is averaging 10 PPG in just over 15 minutes), but three transfers (Cody and Caleb Martin from NC State, Kendall Stephens from Purdue) all were highly rated recruits who could combine with Jordan Caroline for a deep NCAA tournament run. Speaking of Nevada, on their way to a 12 seed last year they had an absolutely ridiculous comeback win over New Mexico. Led by Caroline's 45 points (son of former NFL all-pro player Simeon Rice), the Wolfpack came back from a 25 point deficit to win in OT, including being down 14 with a minute to go. Check it out below:
Example #2
Team 1
Record: 14-5
BPI: 16
SOS: 14
Kenpom.com ranking: 21
Team 2
Record: 14-5
BPI: 35
SOS: 22
Kenpom.com ranking: 36
Team 3
Record: 15-5
BPI: 33
SOS: 20
Kenpom.com ranking: 38
Team 2 and Team 3 look remarkably similar in this example. They both have 5 losses, really similar strength of schedules, BPIs and kenpom rankings. Team 1, on the other hand, looks to be pretty significantly ahead of the other two, looking like a top 15-20 team by most of the metrics. In the AP and Coaches Polls though, Team 1 came in behind Team 2 and Team 3. Why did that happen? Probably because of the name brands that Kentucky (team 2) and to a lesser extent Seton Hall (team 3) bring. These teams were expected to be top 10 to 15 teams going into the season, so despite the fact that they aren't playing very well right now, they still get the benefit of the doubt over a team like Creighton. Creighton might be my pick for most underrated team in the country, as they combine star power (stud guards Marcus Foster and Khyri Thomas) with great depth (10 guys who contribute). I could see them making a deep run this tournament, and having watched all three teams, they certainly impressed me a lot more than Kentucky's inconsistent freshman and Seton Hall's lack of depth.
Example #3
Team 1
Record: 15-4
BPI: 36
SOS: 39
Kenpom.com ranking: 26
Team 2
Record: 14-5
BPI: 26
SOS: 25
Kenpom.com ranking: 22
This blind resume would seem to point towards Team 2 being clearly better than Team 1. Yeah, Team 1 has less losses, but Team 2 has played a tougher schedule and is ranked much higher in both computer rankings. Instead Team 1 (Arizona St) is ranked 21st in the AP Poll and 20th in the Coaches Poll, while Florida St got 14 votes in the AP Poll (good for 33rd), and just two votes in the Coaches Poll (good for a tie for 37th!!!). Florida State is severely underrated, and is a big part of an ACC that is as strong as ever (although not as good as the Big 12). Florida St does not have any big names, as they are led by Terrance Mann, Braian Angola and Phil Cofer (doubt many people are too familiar with those guys), but have a few good road wins (Florida, Virginia Tech and Rutgers) as well as home wins over Syracuse and North Carolina. The Seminoles have been playing great as of late. Arizona St on the other hand, beat Kansas, Xavier and Kansas St earlier in the year, but then lost 4 of their first 6 PAC-12 games. I think the Sun Devils will figure it out at some point, but I doubt the play much of a role in the national picture the way that people thought they would a few weeks ago.
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