What to Watch for This NCAA Tournament
1. The Underseeded
Wichita State (10 seed)
This is just a disgrace. Number 8 in the country on kenpom.com, the Shockers are way underseeded. I think that they should have gotten a 4 or 5 seed, and that they are a 2 or 3 seed quality team. Look for them to beat Dayton easily and then at least give Kentucky a run for their money if they don't take them out.
St. Mary's (7 seed)
This is another incredibly disappointing seeding. I think this team deserves a 4 seed, and a 7 seed is terrible for not only them but also for Arizona, who could have to play them in the second round (by the way, I would love to see that game, particularly the Lauri Markkanen vs. Jock Landale matchup). Fun fact: kenpom.com ranks St. Mary's number 14 and Arizona number 20, while St. Mary's is a 7 seed and Arizona is the 2 seed in the same region.
SMU (6 seed)
Another horrible seed. SMU deserves a 3 seed, and instead they could match up against Baylor and then maybe Duke in the second round and the Sweet 16. The East is loaded overall, with four of the top 8 BPI teams, and 6 of the top 13 kenpom.com teams.
2. The Overseeded
Duke (2 seed)
The seed on this one is not too bad. I think Duke maybe deserved a 3 seed, but two is fine. I just think that they are very overrated in general. Jayson Tatum has become the most overrated player in the country, and while most experts think they will make the final four, I don't think that Duke makes the Elite 8.
Dayton (7 seed)
At least Wichita St got an extremely weak 7 seed, and not a strong one like St. Mary's. I love Archie Miller, and like the Flyers in general, but they should have been a bubble team, not a 7 seed.
Florida State (3 seed)
I really don't like the Seminoles. I would be shocked if they made the Sweet 16, as they seemingly only play well at home, and are done playing at home for the season.
3. Upsets?
7 vs. 10 Matchups
I think Marquette and Wichita State both pull off upsets here. Michigan and St. Mary's both deserve much higher seeds and are really good teams, so I don't see them losing in the first round. Marquette vs. South Carolina will be close but I think the Golden Eagle offense pulls it out. Wichita St should win easily.
6 vs 11 Matchups
SMU should win easily, but I think the other three would be good upset picks. I particularly like Rhode Island, who is hot right now, and faces an easy matchup in Creighton, who is missing their best player. Maryland vs Xavier is almost a toss-up for me, I think both teams are overrated, but Maryland is probably more overrated.
5 vs 12 Matchups
WVU vs Bucknell
WVU should pull this one out, as I don't think Bucknell can handle a full game of the Mountaineers press.
Virginia vs UNC Wilmington
I think UNC Wilmington is really good, so tough matchup for Virginia here. However, Virginia is pretty good too, and I would be surprised to see them lose this early.
Iowa State vs Nevada
Both of these teams looked good this weekend. I think Nevada has a shot if they can make some threes, but Iowa State will probably win.
Minnesota vs Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee has more tournament experience than Minnesota, and might even have more talent than the Gophers. This would be the best 12 over 5 pick in my opinion.
4 vs 13 Matchups
I think that the four seeds are pretty strong this year save for Butler, and the Bulldogs got the easiest 13 seed. So I don't see much potential for upsets here, but Vermont is on a roll and Purdue is in a little bit of a slump, so I could see UVM winning that one.
3 vs 14 Matchups
I think UCLA and Oregon will have no trouble in their matchups. However, I think New Mexico State has a good shot vs Baylor, and I think FGCU has a good shot vs Florida St. Florida St is a very weak 3 seed, and FGCU is a strong 14 seed. I watched FGCU win their conference championship, and saw the best show of dunking I had seen all year.
2 vs 15 Matchups
I don't seem much here, and calling these upsets is almost impossible. However, if I had to give it a shot, I would say Troy over Duke or Northern Kentucky over UK. This is too hard to predict though, and Duke and UK should still win easily.
1 vs 16 Matchups
Not much to talk about here, a 16 seed has never beat a 1 seed and I don't see it happening this year. If I had to pick a 1 seed to go down in the first round, I might say South Dakota St and Mike Daum over Gonzaga. However, Gonzaga is really, really good, so I don't think that will happen.
4. Who will take the title?
I think this question is tough, as there doesn't seem to be an easy pick year. I feel like last year was the year for UNC and Villanova, and that Kansas and Kentucky probably aren't consistent enough. I think I'm going with Gonzaga, as this could be their year.
Wichita State (10 seed)
This is just a disgrace. Number 8 in the country on kenpom.com, the Shockers are way underseeded. I think that they should have gotten a 4 or 5 seed, and that they are a 2 or 3 seed quality team. Look for them to beat Dayton easily and then at least give Kentucky a run for their money if they don't take them out.
St. Mary's (7 seed)
This is another incredibly disappointing seeding. I think this team deserves a 4 seed, and a 7 seed is terrible for not only them but also for Arizona, who could have to play them in the second round (by the way, I would love to see that game, particularly the Lauri Markkanen vs. Jock Landale matchup). Fun fact: kenpom.com ranks St. Mary's number 14 and Arizona number 20, while St. Mary's is a 7 seed and Arizona is the 2 seed in the same region.
SMU (6 seed)
Another horrible seed. SMU deserves a 3 seed, and instead they could match up against Baylor and then maybe Duke in the second round and the Sweet 16. The East is loaded overall, with four of the top 8 BPI teams, and 6 of the top 13 kenpom.com teams.
2. The Overseeded
Duke (2 seed)
The seed on this one is not too bad. I think Duke maybe deserved a 3 seed, but two is fine. I just think that they are very overrated in general. Jayson Tatum has become the most overrated player in the country, and while most experts think they will make the final four, I don't think that Duke makes the Elite 8.
Dayton (7 seed)
At least Wichita St got an extremely weak 7 seed, and not a strong one like St. Mary's. I love Archie Miller, and like the Flyers in general, but they should have been a bubble team, not a 7 seed.
Florida State (3 seed)
I really don't like the Seminoles. I would be shocked if they made the Sweet 16, as they seemingly only play well at home, and are done playing at home for the season.
3. Upsets?
7 vs. 10 Matchups
I think Marquette and Wichita State both pull off upsets here. Michigan and St. Mary's both deserve much higher seeds and are really good teams, so I don't see them losing in the first round. Marquette vs. South Carolina will be close but I think the Golden Eagle offense pulls it out. Wichita St should win easily.
6 vs 11 Matchups
SMU should win easily, but I think the other three would be good upset picks. I particularly like Rhode Island, who is hot right now, and faces an easy matchup in Creighton, who is missing their best player. Maryland vs Xavier is almost a toss-up for me, I think both teams are overrated, but Maryland is probably more overrated.
5 vs 12 Matchups
WVU vs Bucknell
WVU should pull this one out, as I don't think Bucknell can handle a full game of the Mountaineers press.
Virginia vs UNC Wilmington
I think UNC Wilmington is really good, so tough matchup for Virginia here. However, Virginia is pretty good too, and I would be surprised to see them lose this early.
Iowa State vs Nevada
Both of these teams looked good this weekend. I think Nevada has a shot if they can make some threes, but Iowa State will probably win.
Minnesota vs Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee has more tournament experience than Minnesota, and might even have more talent than the Gophers. This would be the best 12 over 5 pick in my opinion.
4 vs 13 Matchups
I think that the four seeds are pretty strong this year save for Butler, and the Bulldogs got the easiest 13 seed. So I don't see much potential for upsets here, but Vermont is on a roll and Purdue is in a little bit of a slump, so I could see UVM winning that one.
3 vs 14 Matchups
I think UCLA and Oregon will have no trouble in their matchups. However, I think New Mexico State has a good shot vs Baylor, and I think FGCU has a good shot vs Florida St. Florida St is a very weak 3 seed, and FGCU is a strong 14 seed. I watched FGCU win their conference championship, and saw the best show of dunking I had seen all year.
2 vs 15 Matchups
I don't seem much here, and calling these upsets is almost impossible. However, if I had to give it a shot, I would say Troy over Duke or Northern Kentucky over UK. This is too hard to predict though, and Duke and UK should still win easily.
1 vs 16 Matchups
Not much to talk about here, a 16 seed has never beat a 1 seed and I don't see it happening this year. If I had to pick a 1 seed to go down in the first round, I might say South Dakota St and Mike Daum over Gonzaga. However, Gonzaga is really, really good, so I don't think that will happen.
4. Who will take the title?
I think this question is tough, as there doesn't seem to be an easy pick year. I feel like last year was the year for UNC and Villanova, and that Kansas and Kentucky probably aren't consistent enough. I think I'm going with Gonzaga, as this could be their year.
Comments
Post a Comment