Underrated Teams
Although this season has been dominated by blue-blood programs thus far (UCLA, Kentucky, Duke Kansas, North Carolina, etc.), there are plenty of underrated teams who could steal the headlines come March. Here are my picks to shock the world in this year's March Madness.
Wichita State
Gregg Marshall is going to make his 6th straight NCAA tournament this year with the Shockers, barring a massive collapse. Many people might have thought that Wichita State couldn't do it without Fred Van Vleet and Ron Baker, who both graduated last year. However, the Shockers are once again a really good team that is a major threat to make some noise in the NCAA tournament. Led by a dominant defense and 6 players who score at least 7.8 points per game, Wichita State is ranked number 13 in the kenpom.com rankings (a Ken Pomeroy computer ratings system that ranks teams based on offensive and defensive efficiency). The most amazing thing to me about this program is its consistency, which is only rivaled by top programs that have so many more resources than Wichita State. Using today's rankings as this year's end of season rankings, only Louisville, Kansas and Wichita State have been top 17 teams on kenpom.com at the end of the last 6 seasons, and only Kansas, Kentucky and Wichita State have been top 13 teams at the end of the last 4 seasons. These streaks seem likely to continue into next year as well, as the Shockers do not have a single senior in their rotation.
Houston
Former Indiana coach Kelvin Sampson leads a very talented bubble team that is ranked 40th on kenpom.com. That 40th ranking would seem to warrant a 10 seed, but tournament projections have Houston on the outside looking in. The Cougars need a big finish in order to get in, but I think that if they do they could win a First Four game and maybe another game or two. They have one of the best backcourts in the country, led by Rob Gray, Jr. and Damyean Dotson. Gray, Jr. is averaging 20.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG, and 3.1 APG on 47.4% FG and 39.7% from three, while Dotson is averaging 17.2 PPG and 7.0 RPG on 49.6% FG and 47.1% from three. This duo has been incredible, and will be hard to stop if Houston makes the tourney.
Oklahoma State
New coach Brad Underwood has a good first year in Stillwater. The Cowboys are ranked number 20 on kenpom.com, which translates to a 5 seed. This is two seed lines ahead of their current 7 seed by Joe Lunardi. I think that their number 2 ranked kenpom offense will be very difficult to stop in a few weeks, particularly as they are already on a roll. After losing 6 in a row earlier this year, Oklahoma State has responded by winning 8 of their last 9, with the only loss being against top 10 Baylor on the road. Underwood was known for NCAA tournament success at Stephen F. Austin, and this Cowboy team could also make a deep run in March. They are led by a backcourt even better than Houston's. Lead guard Jawun Evans is one of the best point guards in the country, averaging 18.2 PPG, 3.2 RPG and 5.8 APG on good shooting percentages, while off guard Jeffery Carroll is averaging 17.7 PPG and 6.6 RPG on incredible shooting percentages (54.5% from the field and 44.6% from three). This doesn't even include experienced 5th year senior guard Phil Forte III, who is shooting 42% from three on a very high volume (6.4 attempts per game), and is their third leading scorer at 13.8 PPG. Watch for the Cowboys to potentially make an elite 8 or further run this year.
West Virginia
The Mountaineers may be a four seed in Joe Lunardi's current bracket, higher than the other teams on this list. However, I believe that they play more like a one seed, as they rank third on kenpom.com and boast an incredible defense and an efficient offense. In an ESPN poll of 50 college coaches, West Virginia came up 14 times as the most feared NCAA team, five more times than any other team. This shows how disrupting their press can be. They lead the country in steals by a large margin, and guards such as Jevon Carter, Tarik Phillip and Daxter Miles, Jr. (of the infamous quote two years ago that WVU would beat undefeated UK in the tourney) force turnovers at astounding rates. I would not be surprised if this was the year for West Virginia to make a Final Four run.
UNC Wilmington
UNC Wilmington is projected as an 11 seed right now, so they are getting a fair amount of recognition from Joe Lunardi of ESPN. However, their national coverage in general has been very light. Although they are a mid-major team, the Seahawks have the talent of a high-major program. They are anchored by Devontae Cacok, a 6-7 forward who is averaging 12.4 PPG and 9.9 RPG on a national leading 78.7% from the field! UNC Wilmington also boasts of two other players averaging 16.0 PPG and 5.6 RPG on at least 47.7% FG (Chris Flemmings and CJ Bryce). Beware of the Seahawks, especially if they receive a 12 or 13 seed this NCAA tournament.
Other underrated teams to watch out for:
Marquette- projected as one of the last four in right now, but #35 on kenpom.com, and led by 5-11 freshman guard Markus Howard, who is shooting 53.7 % from three (!!!) with 12.8 PPG. Howard also hit 9 threes in their last game vs Xavier (a 22 point win).
Wake Forest- on the outside looking in for the NCAA tourney right now, but are #30 right now, and are led by big man John Collins, who is averaging 19.0 PPG and 9.6 RPG on 62.1% from the field and 73.3 % from the line.
Michigan- have played very well lately, and this hot streak could lead Derrick Walton and company to a couple of tourney wins.
St. Mary's- projected as a 6 seed right now, but I think Jock Landale and the army of Australians on their roster (7 Australians on their roster!) could use their methodical offense to win at least a couple of games this NCAA tournament.
Middle Tennessee- they upset 2 seed Michigan St as a 15 seed last year, but this year's team is a lot better, and should be back for more.
East Tennessee State, Princeton, Vermont and UT Arlington- all mid-major teams ranked in the 60s on kenpom.com. These are all good picks to win an NCAA tourney game as a 12 or 13 seed.
Wichita State
Gregg Marshall is going to make his 6th straight NCAA tournament this year with the Shockers, barring a massive collapse. Many people might have thought that Wichita State couldn't do it without Fred Van Vleet and Ron Baker, who both graduated last year. However, the Shockers are once again a really good team that is a major threat to make some noise in the NCAA tournament. Led by a dominant defense and 6 players who score at least 7.8 points per game, Wichita State is ranked number 13 in the kenpom.com rankings (a Ken Pomeroy computer ratings system that ranks teams based on offensive and defensive efficiency). The most amazing thing to me about this program is its consistency, which is only rivaled by top programs that have so many more resources than Wichita State. Using today's rankings as this year's end of season rankings, only Louisville, Kansas and Wichita State have been top 17 teams on kenpom.com at the end of the last 6 seasons, and only Kansas, Kentucky and Wichita State have been top 13 teams at the end of the last 4 seasons. These streaks seem likely to continue into next year as well, as the Shockers do not have a single senior in their rotation.
Houston
Former Indiana coach Kelvin Sampson leads a very talented bubble team that is ranked 40th on kenpom.com. That 40th ranking would seem to warrant a 10 seed, but tournament projections have Houston on the outside looking in. The Cougars need a big finish in order to get in, but I think that if they do they could win a First Four game and maybe another game or two. They have one of the best backcourts in the country, led by Rob Gray, Jr. and Damyean Dotson. Gray, Jr. is averaging 20.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG, and 3.1 APG on 47.4% FG and 39.7% from three, while Dotson is averaging 17.2 PPG and 7.0 RPG on 49.6% FG and 47.1% from three. This duo has been incredible, and will be hard to stop if Houston makes the tourney.
Oklahoma State
New coach Brad Underwood has a good first year in Stillwater. The Cowboys are ranked number 20 on kenpom.com, which translates to a 5 seed. This is two seed lines ahead of their current 7 seed by Joe Lunardi. I think that their number 2 ranked kenpom offense will be very difficult to stop in a few weeks, particularly as they are already on a roll. After losing 6 in a row earlier this year, Oklahoma State has responded by winning 8 of their last 9, with the only loss being against top 10 Baylor on the road. Underwood was known for NCAA tournament success at Stephen F. Austin, and this Cowboy team could also make a deep run in March. They are led by a backcourt even better than Houston's. Lead guard Jawun Evans is one of the best point guards in the country, averaging 18.2 PPG, 3.2 RPG and 5.8 APG on good shooting percentages, while off guard Jeffery Carroll is averaging 17.7 PPG and 6.6 RPG on incredible shooting percentages (54.5% from the field and 44.6% from three). This doesn't even include experienced 5th year senior guard Phil Forte III, who is shooting 42% from three on a very high volume (6.4 attempts per game), and is their third leading scorer at 13.8 PPG. Watch for the Cowboys to potentially make an elite 8 or further run this year.
West Virginia
The Mountaineers may be a four seed in Joe Lunardi's current bracket, higher than the other teams on this list. However, I believe that they play more like a one seed, as they rank third on kenpom.com and boast an incredible defense and an efficient offense. In an ESPN poll of 50 college coaches, West Virginia came up 14 times as the most feared NCAA team, five more times than any other team. This shows how disrupting their press can be. They lead the country in steals by a large margin, and guards such as Jevon Carter, Tarik Phillip and Daxter Miles, Jr. (of the infamous quote two years ago that WVU would beat undefeated UK in the tourney) force turnovers at astounding rates. I would not be surprised if this was the year for West Virginia to make a Final Four run.
UNC Wilmington
UNC Wilmington is projected as an 11 seed right now, so they are getting a fair amount of recognition from Joe Lunardi of ESPN. However, their national coverage in general has been very light. Although they are a mid-major team, the Seahawks have the talent of a high-major program. They are anchored by Devontae Cacok, a 6-7 forward who is averaging 12.4 PPG and 9.9 RPG on a national leading 78.7% from the field! UNC Wilmington also boasts of two other players averaging 16.0 PPG and 5.6 RPG on at least 47.7% FG (Chris Flemmings and CJ Bryce). Beware of the Seahawks, especially if they receive a 12 or 13 seed this NCAA tournament.
Other underrated teams to watch out for:
Marquette- projected as one of the last four in right now, but #35 on kenpom.com, and led by 5-11 freshman guard Markus Howard, who is shooting 53.7 % from three (!!!) with 12.8 PPG. Howard also hit 9 threes in their last game vs Xavier (a 22 point win).
Wake Forest- on the outside looking in for the NCAA tourney right now, but are #30 right now, and are led by big man John Collins, who is averaging 19.0 PPG and 9.6 RPG on 62.1% from the field and 73.3 % from the line.
Michigan- have played very well lately, and this hot streak could lead Derrick Walton and company to a couple of tourney wins.
St. Mary's- projected as a 6 seed right now, but I think Jock Landale and the army of Australians on their roster (7 Australians on their roster!) could use their methodical offense to win at least a couple of games this NCAA tournament.
Middle Tennessee- they upset 2 seed Michigan St as a 15 seed last year, but this year's team is a lot better, and should be back for more.
East Tennessee State, Princeton, Vermont and UT Arlington- all mid-major teams ranked in the 60s on kenpom.com. These are all good picks to win an NCAA tourney game as a 12 or 13 seed.
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