College Basketball Stock Watch: Buy, Sell or Hold
In this post, I'm going to pretend that basketball teams are stocks, and give advice on whether to buy, sell or hold. I'm picking 5 of the most talked about and well-known teams in the country.
Baylor - SELL
With Villanova's loss, Baylor should move to #1 in the country, barring a loss to Oklahoma St. While I think Baylor is really good, definitely a top 10 team, and probably a top 5 team, I don't think they are worthy of the number one spot. They barely beat Iowa State this week at home, and don't have the elite talent that other top teams do. While I think they are still a great team, I would sell them as the number one team in the country, because I think they are going to lose a game or two in the near future.
Duke - HOLD
Duke is ranked number 8 right now. I think that they have the most talent in the country by far. Harry Giles has looked very good in limited minutes since returning from his knee injury, and I think that if this team puts it all together, they could be really good. However, I'm not sure that they will put it all together, leading me to believe they are rated right where they should be. Grayson Allen is clearly a fantastic player, one of the best in the country. However, his tripping of three players, his fit on the bench, and the subsequent one game suspension from Coach K are unacceptable. Allen didn't even get a game for each player he tripped, and I would be worried as a Duke fan that this suspension could hurt team chemistry. A team with a bunch of young guys doesn't need to be involved in the biggest scandal in the country so far this season, and I don't think this will help them bond together. I also heard a sports analyst say this past week that the this Duke team doesn't seem to want it as much as other ones have. I guess we'll see.
Florida - BUY
The Gators aren't loaded with talent, but I think that they have shown that they are worthy of much better than their 24th ranking spot. They only have three losses, two of which are to Gonzaga and Duke, a couple of top 10 teams, and the third of which was to number 12 Florida State on the road. All of these were relatively close games (10 points or less), showing that Florida can hang with really good teams. The Gators also have wins over Miami, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Seton Hall, and have a lot of depth. I think that Florida is going to move up the rankings in the next few weeks, and could get as high as a 3 seed in the NCAA tourney.
INDIANA - BUY
The Hoosiers have faced a tough stretch recently, losing three in a row and four of their last six. They will almost surely fall out of the rankings this week, but I think that by the end of the year, they will be back in the top 20, and will get about a 5 seed. No team has been more volatile this year than Indiana. They have beaten North Carolina and Kansas, but have lost to Fort Wayne and Nebraska. This is partially due to their fast place of play and their reliance on the three point shot, but is also due to inconsistent players. They don't have a guy who has shot consistently all year, despite having some great players. Thomas Bryant has been a huge disappointment thus far, but I think he will start playing harder and will return to his old form as a dominant big man. Indiana has the potential for a dominant offense, is already dominant on the boards, and should at least be solid on defense, which is why I think they will turn it around.
UCLA - SELL
The Bruins are ranked number four right now, and might move up to number three with Villanova's loss. However, I don't think that they are really this good. UCLA has an incredible group of six players that can play with any team in the country. Lonzo Ball and TJ Leaf have been two of the top four or five freshman in the country, and you could make the argument that they are the top two freshman in the country. Aaron Holiday, Isaac Hamilton, Bryce Alford and Thomas Welsh have also been fantastic this year. However, I think that their shooting will come down to earth a little bit. I don't think that Leaf and Ball can sustain their 47% and 41% from three respectively, and Alford and Holiday are also shooting out of their minds. I think their shooting is going to go cold for a few games, and this could lead to a couple of losses.
Baylor - SELL
With Villanova's loss, Baylor should move to #1 in the country, barring a loss to Oklahoma St. While I think Baylor is really good, definitely a top 10 team, and probably a top 5 team, I don't think they are worthy of the number one spot. They barely beat Iowa State this week at home, and don't have the elite talent that other top teams do. While I think they are still a great team, I would sell them as the number one team in the country, because I think they are going to lose a game or two in the near future.
Duke - HOLD
Duke is ranked number 8 right now. I think that they have the most talent in the country by far. Harry Giles has looked very good in limited minutes since returning from his knee injury, and I think that if this team puts it all together, they could be really good. However, I'm not sure that they will put it all together, leading me to believe they are rated right where they should be. Grayson Allen is clearly a fantastic player, one of the best in the country. However, his tripping of three players, his fit on the bench, and the subsequent one game suspension from Coach K are unacceptable. Allen didn't even get a game for each player he tripped, and I would be worried as a Duke fan that this suspension could hurt team chemistry. A team with a bunch of young guys doesn't need to be involved in the biggest scandal in the country so far this season, and I don't think this will help them bond together. I also heard a sports analyst say this past week that the this Duke team doesn't seem to want it as much as other ones have. I guess we'll see.
Florida - BUY
The Gators aren't loaded with talent, but I think that they have shown that they are worthy of much better than their 24th ranking spot. They only have three losses, two of which are to Gonzaga and Duke, a couple of top 10 teams, and the third of which was to number 12 Florida State on the road. All of these were relatively close games (10 points or less), showing that Florida can hang with really good teams. The Gators also have wins over Miami, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Seton Hall, and have a lot of depth. I think that Florida is going to move up the rankings in the next few weeks, and could get as high as a 3 seed in the NCAA tourney.
INDIANA - BUY
The Hoosiers have faced a tough stretch recently, losing three in a row and four of their last six. They will almost surely fall out of the rankings this week, but I think that by the end of the year, they will be back in the top 20, and will get about a 5 seed. No team has been more volatile this year than Indiana. They have beaten North Carolina and Kansas, but have lost to Fort Wayne and Nebraska. This is partially due to their fast place of play and their reliance on the three point shot, but is also due to inconsistent players. They don't have a guy who has shot consistently all year, despite having some great players. Thomas Bryant has been a huge disappointment thus far, but I think he will start playing harder and will return to his old form as a dominant big man. Indiana has the potential for a dominant offense, is already dominant on the boards, and should at least be solid on defense, which is why I think they will turn it around.
UCLA - SELL
The Bruins are ranked number four right now, and might move up to number three with Villanova's loss. However, I don't think that they are really this good. UCLA has an incredible group of six players that can play with any team in the country. Lonzo Ball and TJ Leaf have been two of the top four or five freshman in the country, and you could make the argument that they are the top two freshman in the country. Aaron Holiday, Isaac Hamilton, Bryce Alford and Thomas Welsh have also been fantastic this year. However, I think that their shooting will come down to earth a little bit. I don't think that Leaf and Ball can sustain their 47% and 41% from three respectively, and Alford and Holiday are also shooting out of their minds. I think their shooting is going to go cold for a few games, and this could lead to a couple of losses.
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