Some NCAA Tourney Predictions
1. Oregon is upset early.
The Ducks are a good team, but in my opinion, more of a 3 seed than a one seed, although their blowout win over Utah in the PAC-12 title game was nice. The real problem for me regarding their NCAA tourney hopes is how many bad losses they have. They have 3 losses against teams outside the top 100, and two more against teams outside the top 50. This doesn't bode well for the NCAA tournament, as teams will only be coming after them even harder, as they are a 1 seed. I don't think the Ducks make the Elite 8, and although they certainly are not likely to lose in the first round, and I think they almost definitely won't, but of all the 1 seeds in recent years, I think they are most likely to lose of any of them.
2. The Big Ten has a strong showing.
The Big Ten was under seeded this year, with only one team seeded 4 or higher, and teams like Indiana, Michigan St, and Iowa seeded lower than what they were projected to be seeded. I think Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, and Michigan State have the tools to make an elite 8 run, and Wisconsin and Iowa are by far the best seven seeds. The Big 10 should get at least a team to the Final 4, and prove to the committee that they are the most underrated league.
3. The PAC-12 has a poor showing.
The PAC-12, unlike the Big 10, was definitely over seeded this year. I already talked about Oregon, and additionally teams like Utah (ranked 29 on kenpom.com), California (21), Oregon State (60), USC (49), and Colorado (55), were all overseeded as 3, 4, 7, 8, and 8 seeds respectively. I don't think any of these teams will make the Sweet 16, and it is possible that they all lose in the first round. I think the committee needs to realize that the RPI is not as good as advertised, and that it's fascination with the PAC-12 needs to stop.
4. Duke turns out to be the big Selection Sunday winner.
Duke got quite the NCAA tourney draw. They get a fairly weak 13 seed in the first round, and the weakest 5 and 1 seeds in the entire tournament. They have a pretty easy road to the Elite 8, especially for a 4 seed, and although they lack inside depth, they have enough talent to make a deep run.
5. A bunch of 3's, 4's and 5's lose in the first round.
The group of 3's, 4's and 5's doesn't look to great this year, and I think a few of these teams could go down in the first round. There are also a lot of good 12's, 13's and 14's. Stony Brook and star Jameel Warney (42 Pts and 10 boards on 18-22 from the field), Iona and A.J. English, Green Bay, Yale, Hawaii and Arkansas Little-Rock could all pull of a big first round upset.
The Ducks are a good team, but in my opinion, more of a 3 seed than a one seed, although their blowout win over Utah in the PAC-12 title game was nice. The real problem for me regarding their NCAA tourney hopes is how many bad losses they have. They have 3 losses against teams outside the top 100, and two more against teams outside the top 50. This doesn't bode well for the NCAA tournament, as teams will only be coming after them even harder, as they are a 1 seed. I don't think the Ducks make the Elite 8, and although they certainly are not likely to lose in the first round, and I think they almost definitely won't, but of all the 1 seeds in recent years, I think they are most likely to lose of any of them.
2. The Big Ten has a strong showing.
The Big Ten was under seeded this year, with only one team seeded 4 or higher, and teams like Indiana, Michigan St, and Iowa seeded lower than what they were projected to be seeded. I think Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, and Michigan State have the tools to make an elite 8 run, and Wisconsin and Iowa are by far the best seven seeds. The Big 10 should get at least a team to the Final 4, and prove to the committee that they are the most underrated league.
3. The PAC-12 has a poor showing.
The PAC-12, unlike the Big 10, was definitely over seeded this year. I already talked about Oregon, and additionally teams like Utah (ranked 29 on kenpom.com), California (21), Oregon State (60), USC (49), and Colorado (55), were all overseeded as 3, 4, 7, 8, and 8 seeds respectively. I don't think any of these teams will make the Sweet 16, and it is possible that they all lose in the first round. I think the committee needs to realize that the RPI is not as good as advertised, and that it's fascination with the PAC-12 needs to stop.
4. Duke turns out to be the big Selection Sunday winner.
Duke got quite the NCAA tourney draw. They get a fairly weak 13 seed in the first round, and the weakest 5 and 1 seeds in the entire tournament. They have a pretty easy road to the Elite 8, especially for a 4 seed, and although they lack inside depth, they have enough talent to make a deep run.
5. A bunch of 3's, 4's and 5's lose in the first round.
The group of 3's, 4's and 5's doesn't look to great this year, and I think a few of these teams could go down in the first round. There are also a lot of good 12's, 13's and 14's. Stony Brook and star Jameel Warney (42 Pts and 10 boards on 18-22 from the field), Iona and A.J. English, Green Bay, Yale, Hawaii and Arkansas Little-Rock could all pull of a big first round upset.
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