Pac-12 Conference Outlook
The PAC-12 is full of overrated and underrated teams, so I'm going to break the conference down that way.
Let's start with the overrateds:
Overrated Teams:
Oregon
Oregon is being treated like a top team right now, ranked number 16 in the AP poll, but the most incredible thing to me is that they are a 3 seed by top bracketologists Jerry Palm (CBS) and Joe Lunardi (ESPN). This is absolutely ridiculous. Oregon lost twice this week, once in an absolute blowout from the start, to an unranked team in California. To be blown out by a team that isn't top 30 in either the AP poll or kenpom.com is not a good sign. Not to mention, they followed up that loss with another loss, this one to Stanford, who was 11-11 and had lost 4 in a row, all to unranked teams. Oregon has some decent wins. The one on the road against Arizona is particularly nice, but bad losses litter the schedule. They have lost to an astonishing 5 non-top 60 kenpom.com teams and an even more ridiculous 3 non top 100 kenpom.com teams. Honestly, I'm shocked that they are a projected three seed. How can you put the Ducks on the same level as West Virginia or Michigan State?
Arizona
I really don't think the Wildcats are that overrated, but I just find it curious that they don't have a single win over a ranked team. They are the only team in the top 20 without a win over a currently ranked team. They have had a couple of pretty good chances too, home matchups against teams ranked in the lower half of the top 25 (Providence and Oregon).
Colorado
Let's see if I can keep this one sentence long: 19-7 and an 8 seed by Joe Lunardi, yet not even top 60 on kenpom.com and with a lot of poor showings against bad teams, and not a lot of good wins (only two wins over kenpom.com top 60 teams).
Now to the Underrated Teams:
Utah
I like the Utes this year. I know they are not ranked in the AP poll or the Coaches poll, and are number 40 on kenpom.com, but they have passed the eye test when I have watched them this year. They have no really shocking losses (the one on the road against Stanford is pretty bad, but at least it wasn't at home and it was close), and they have good wins over Duke and California. Jakob Poeltl is a beast inside, and the team looked really good vs Duke.
USC
I love the program that Andy Enfield is building at USC. He didn't worry about bringing in quick fixes, but instead worked on building a team and getting some good in-state guys that could play well in his system. It has paid off, as they have had a good season. They dropped out of the rankings this week, but I like that they haven't lost a home game this year. Going on the road can be tough, and they will definitely have to learn to play away from home for the PAC-12 and NCAA tournament, but creating a powerful home court advantage is something all top teams have to do. Think about it, all of the top programs (Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, Indiana, Syracuse, etc.) have huge home court advantages.
Let's start with the overrateds:
Overrated Teams:
Oregon
Oregon is being treated like a top team right now, ranked number 16 in the AP poll, but the most incredible thing to me is that they are a 3 seed by top bracketologists Jerry Palm (CBS) and Joe Lunardi (ESPN). This is absolutely ridiculous. Oregon lost twice this week, once in an absolute blowout from the start, to an unranked team in California. To be blown out by a team that isn't top 30 in either the AP poll or kenpom.com is not a good sign. Not to mention, they followed up that loss with another loss, this one to Stanford, who was 11-11 and had lost 4 in a row, all to unranked teams. Oregon has some decent wins. The one on the road against Arizona is particularly nice, but bad losses litter the schedule. They have lost to an astonishing 5 non-top 60 kenpom.com teams and an even more ridiculous 3 non top 100 kenpom.com teams. Honestly, I'm shocked that they are a projected three seed. How can you put the Ducks on the same level as West Virginia or Michigan State?
Arizona
I really don't think the Wildcats are that overrated, but I just find it curious that they don't have a single win over a ranked team. They are the only team in the top 20 without a win over a currently ranked team. They have had a couple of pretty good chances too, home matchups against teams ranked in the lower half of the top 25 (Providence and Oregon).
Colorado
Let's see if I can keep this one sentence long: 19-7 and an 8 seed by Joe Lunardi, yet not even top 60 on kenpom.com and with a lot of poor showings against bad teams, and not a lot of good wins (only two wins over kenpom.com top 60 teams).
Now to the Underrated Teams:
Utah
I like the Utes this year. I know they are not ranked in the AP poll or the Coaches poll, and are number 40 on kenpom.com, but they have passed the eye test when I have watched them this year. They have no really shocking losses (the one on the road against Stanford is pretty bad, but at least it wasn't at home and it was close), and they have good wins over Duke and California. Jakob Poeltl is a beast inside, and the team looked really good vs Duke.
USC
I love the program that Andy Enfield is building at USC. He didn't worry about bringing in quick fixes, but instead worked on building a team and getting some good in-state guys that could play well in his system. It has paid off, as they have had a good season. They dropped out of the rankings this week, but I like that they haven't lost a home game this year. Going on the road can be tough, and they will definitely have to learn to play away from home for the PAC-12 and NCAA tournament, but creating a powerful home court advantage is something all top teams have to do. Think about it, all of the top programs (Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, Indiana, Syracuse, etc.) have huge home court advantages.
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